Approaches to biomedical knowledge

Session #4: Human Phenotype Ontology and algorithms

Peter N Robinson

Free University Berlin

2026-04-26

Overview: Semantic similarity

Semantic Similarity: The Resnik Method

In 1995, Resnik introduced a method for evaluating the semantic similarity between two concepts in an ontology with is_a relations.1

  • Core Idea: Associate probabilities with the concepts of an ontology.
  • Definitions:
    • Let \(\mathcal{C}=\left\{c_1,c_2,\ldots,c_n\right\}\) be the set of concepts in the ontology (permits multiple inheritance).
    • Define a function \(p:\mathcal{C}\longrightarrow \left[ 0,1\right]\).
    • \(p(c_i)\) is the probability of encountering an instance of class \(c_i \in \mathcal{C}\).

Ontology Probabilities & Information Content

Example: WordNet Excerpt

  • Hierarchy: Every pebble is a stone, and every stone is a natural object.
  • The Root: Every concept is a descendent of entity.
    • \(p(\text{entity}) = 1\)
    • Information Content: \(\log 1 = 0\)

Knowing a random term is a descendent of entity provides no added information. Conversely, the probability of a specific term like pebble is much lower, meaning its Information Content is correspondingly higher.

Information Content (IC)

Logic of Inheritance

Recall that:
\(x\) instance_of \(A\) AND \(A\) is_a \(B\) \(\implies\) \(x\) instance_of \(B\).

  • Monotonicity: \(p\) is a monotonically increasing function as we move up the hierarchy.
    • If \(c_i\) is_a \(c_j\), then \(p(c_i) \leq p(c_j)\).
  • Root Probability: If the ontology has a unique root node \(r\), then \(p(r)=1\).

Resnik’s Definition

The Information Content (IC) of a concept is the negative log likelihood of its probability:

\[\text{IC}(t) = -\log p(t)\]

Intuition Behind IC

As the probability of a concept increases, its information content decreases. This mirrors information theory:

  • Common vs. Rare: We gain less new information from an observation of a common event than from a rare one.
  • The Root Term: Since the root subsumes all concepts:
    • \(p(\text{root}) = 1\)
    • \(\text{IC}(\text{root}) = -\log(1) = 0\)

Summary

The more specific a term is (lower probability), the higher its Information Content. The more general it is (higher probability), the lower its Information Content.

Basic Properties of Information Content (IC)

Mathematical Foundation

Information Content relies heavily on the properties of logarithms. These identities are essential for calculating IC across different branches of an ontology.

The following logarithmic identities1 are fundamental to the behavior of \(IC(t) = -\log p(t)\):

\[ \begin{aligned} \log 1 &= 0 \\ \log xy &= \log x + \log y \\ \log x^r &= r \log x \\ \log \frac{1}{x} &= - \log x \\ \log_a x &= \frac{\log x}{\log a} \end{aligned} \]

Entropy

Game plan

This lecture covers a review of artificial neural networks and backpropagation as a prerequisite for understanding transformers and LLMs.

Part 1: Information content

  • Information content
  • Entropy

Part 2: Semantic similarity

  • Definition of ontologies (review)
  • Ontologies and biomedical research

Part 3: Human Phenotype Ontology

  • Phenotype and phenotypic feature
  • HPO

Part 4: Phenomizer

  • Phenomizer algorithm

Entropy

  • Let us assume we are analyzing a random variable \(X\), which can take on one of a finite number of specific values \(\left\{x_1,x_2,\ldots,x_n\right\}\) with a probability \(\left\{p_1,p_2,\ldots,p_n\right\}\), where the probability of the outcome \(x_i\) is \(p_i\) with \(0\leq p_i\leq 1\) and \(\sum_{i=1}^n p_i=1\).
  • We will use the notation \(p(X=x)\) or simply \(p(x)\) to denote the probability that the random variable \(X\) takes on some specific value \(x\), where \(x\in \left\{x_1,x_2,\ldots,x_n\right\}\).
  • We will refer to each of the specific values that \(X\) can take on as outcomes.

Shannon defined the information content of an outcome \(x\) as

\[ h(x) = \log_2 \dfrac{1}{p(x)} \tag{1}\]

Entropy (2)

Note that because of the properties of logarithms, \(\log_2 \frac{1}{p(x)} = -\log_2 p(x)\), which is the definition of information content. The entropy of the random variable \(X\), written as \(H(X)\), was defined by Shannon as the average information content of all of the possible outcomes of \(X\).1

\[ H(X) = \sum_{i=1}^n p(x_i)\log_2\dfrac{1}{p(x_i)} \tag{2}\]

Entropy (3)

Entropy and information content are measured in units called bits (not to be confused with the definition of a bit as a zero or one in computer science).

  • The entropy of a random variable \(X\) can be interpreted as the uncertainty of the random variable. For instance, if \(X\) has only one outcome (i.e., \(p(x')=1\) for some \(x'\)), then the entropy of \(X\) is zero.

\[ H(X) = p(x')\log_2\dfrac{1}{p(x')} = 1\times (-1)\times\log_2 1 = 0 \]

Entropy (4)

On the other hand the entropy of \(X\) is maximized if there is maximal uncertainty about the outcome – this is the case if no outcome is more likely than the others, or stated differently, if \(X\) follows a uniform distribution.

  • Entropy of a random variable \(X=\left\{\mathtt{0, 1}\right\}\) representing Bernoulli process such as a coin toss for different values of \(p(X=1)\).
  • Maximum entropy is achieved if \(p(\mathtt{0}) = p(\mathtt{1}) = 0.5\), i.e., for a uniform distribution.

Proof

We want to show: among all probability distributions on \(n\) outcomes, entropy

\[ H(p) = -\sum_{i=1}^n p_i \log p_i \]

is maximized by the uniform distribution \(p_i = 1/n\).

  • Constraint: \(\sum_{i=1}^n p_i = 1\), with \(p_i \geq 0\).
  • The method of Lagrange multipliers allows us to find maximums/minimums subject to a constraint

The Lagrangian

Introduce a multiplier \(\lambda\) for the normalization constraint:

\[ \mathcal{L}(p, \lambda) = -\sum_{i=1}^n p_i \log p_i \;-\; \lambda\left(\sum_{i=1}^n p_i - 1\right) \]

  • At a stationary point, the gradient with respect to every \(p_i\) must vanish, i.e., \(\tfrac{\partial \mathcal{L}(p, \lambda)}{\partial p_i}=0\)
  • We have

\[ \begin{align} \frac{\partial \mathcal{L}}{\partial p_i} &= -\log p_i - 1 - \lambda = 0 \quad \Longrightarrow \quad p_i = e^{-1-\lambda} \end{align} \]

  • the right-hand side doesn’t depend on \(i\), so every \(p_i\) must be equal; denoting the the common value \(c\): \[ \sum_{i=1}^n p_i = \sum_{i=1}^n c = nc = 1 \quad \Longrightarrow \quad p_i = \frac{1}{n}\quad \text{for all } i \]

The Hessian Matrix

\[ \nabla^2 \mathcal{L} = \begin{bmatrix} -\dfrac{1}{p_1} & 0 & \cdots & 0 \\ 0 & -\dfrac{1}{p_2} & \cdots & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & \ddots & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & \cdots & -\dfrac{1}{p_n} \end{bmatrix} \]

Since \(p_i > 0\), every diagonal entry is negative, and off-diagonal entries vanish.

\(H(p)\) is therefore strictly concave — the unique critical point is a global maximum, not a saddle or minimum.

\[ H(p) \leq H\left(\tfrac{1}{n}, \dots, \tfrac{1}{n}\right) = \log n \]

for every probability distribution \(p\) on \(n\) outcomes, with equality iff \(p\) is uniform.

Interpretation: maximal uncertainty about the outcome corresponds exactly to maximal entropy — any deviation from uniformity introduces predictability and strictly lowers \(H\).

Entropy (5)

The function \(IC(x) = -\log p(x)\) is a natural one for measuring information content, for several reasons.

  • If there is no uncertainty, i.e., if \(p(x=1)\), then \(IC(x)= \log 1 = 0\).
  • On the other hand, the information content can be arbitrarily large as the probability of an outcome goes to arbitrary small quantities: \(\lim_{x\rightarrow 0}\log x = \infty\).
  • Say we have two random variables, \(X\) and \(Y\), that are independent from one another. It is reasonable to assume that the information content of the outcomes \(x\) and \(y\) must be additive. This is a natural consequence of the logarithm, because

\[ IC(x,y) = -\log_2 (xy) = -\log_2 x - \log_2 y = IC(x) + IC(y) \]

Shannon’s Entropy: The Uniqueness Theorem

Claude Shannon’s definition of entropy is not arbitrary; it is the only function that satisfies three fundamental postulates.

Theorem: Uniqueness of Entropy

Let \(P = \{p_1, p_2, \dots, p_n\}\) be the probabilities of outcomes \(\{x_1, x_2, \dots, x_n\}\), where \(p_i \geq 0\) and \(\sum p_i = 1\).

A continuous function \(H(P)\) satisfies the following:

  1. Maximality: \(H\) is maximized when \(p_i = \frac{1}{n}\) for all \(i\) (uncertainty is highest when all outcomes are equally likely).
  2. Additivity: \(H(AB) = H(A) + H_A(B)\). If \(A\) and \(B\) are independent, \(H(AB) = H(A) + H(B)\).
  3. Expandability: \(H(p_1, \dots, p_n) = H(p_1, \dots, p_n, 0)\) (adding an impossible event does not change entropy).

Then \(H\) must take the form: \[H(p_1, p_2, \dots, p_n) = \lambda \sum_{i=1}^n - p_i \log p_i\] where \(\lambda\) is a positive constant (usually \(\lambda=1\)).

Information Content in Gene Ontology (GO)

In the setting of GO, the probability of a term \(t\) is the probability that a randomly chosen gene product (usually: protein) is annotated to that term.

  • The Root Term: Assuming all genes are annotated to the root (the most general term):
    • \(p(\text{root}) = 1\)
    • \(\text{IC}(\text{root}) = -\log_2(1) = 0\)
  • General vs. Specific:
    • Terms used for many genes have low IC.
    • Terms used for very few genes have high IC.

Note

This reflects “surprise”: discovering a gene is annotated to the root is expected, while discovering a rare, specific annotation provides significant information.

IC: Numerical Examples

Assume we have a set of 256 annotated genes:

Genes Annotated to Term Probability \(p(t)\) IC calculation (\(-\log_2 p(t)\)) IC Value
256 (All) \(256/256 = 1\) \(-\log_2(1)\) 0
4 \(4/256\) \(-\log_2(4/256) = 8 - 2\) 6
2 \(2/256\) \(-\log_2(2/256) = 8 - 1\) 7
1 (Unique) \(1/256\) \(-\log_2(1/256)\) 8

Semantic Similarity (\(t_1 \leftrightarrow t_2\))

Resnik defined similarity between two terms based on the Information Content of their Most Specific Ancestor (MSA).

\[\text{IC}(t) = -\log p(t)\]

Resnik Similarity

The similarity is the IC of the most specific ancestor \(a\) in the set of common ancestors \(\mathcal{A}(t_1, t_2)\):

\[ \mathrm{sim}(t_1, t_2) = \max_{a \in \mathcal{A}(t_1, t_2)} [-\log p(a)] \tag{3}\]

We refer to this as the IC of the Most Specific Ancestor: \(\text{IC}(a')\), or MICA

Semantic similarity: An example

  • An ontology with annotated items

Semantic similarity

  • lion and cheetah are similar

Semantic similarity

  • beagle and wildcat are not \(\ldots\)

HPO

Game plan

This lecture covers a review of artificial neural networks and backpropagation as a prerequisite for understanding transformers and LLMs.

Part 1: Information content

  • Information content
  • Entropy

Part 2: Semantic similarity

  • Definition of ontologies (review)
  • Ontologies and biomedical research

Part 3: Human Phenotype Ontology

  • Phenotype and phenotypic feature
  • HPO

Part 4: Phenomizer

  • Phenomizer algorithm

Bioinformatics for Medicine?

  • How exactly do we calculate the similarity between diseases, symptoms, patients, and more?

Common Cold

ICU

Broken Bone

EKG

A tale of two footballs

\[ \begin{equation*} \mbox{American Football} = \mbox{Football} \neq \mbox{Football} = \mbox{European Football} = \mbox{Soccer} \end{equation*} \]

A football \(\ldots\)

A football \(\ldots\)

When you see ``football’’, your computer sees: 0100011001101111011011110111010001100010011000010110110001101100

A tale of two fibrillations

\[ \begin{equation*} \mbox{muscle fibrillation} = \mbox{fibrillation} \neq \mbox{fibrillation} = \mbox{ventricular fibrillation} \end{equation*} \]

fibrillation \(\ldots\)

fibrillation \(\ldots\)

When you see ``fibrillation’’, your computer sees: 011001100110100101100010011100100110100101101100011011000110000101110100011010010110111101101110

What is a phenotype ontology?

Core Purpose

Precise language (and thinking), interoperability, and improved database models to reliably capture and interpret phenotype information.

  • A medical phenotype ontology describes the individual manifestations of diseases:

    1. Signs
    2. Symptoms
    3. Laboratory findings
    4. Imaging studies
    5. etc.

Robinson PN, Webber C (2014) Phenotype ontologies and cross-species analysis for translational research. PLoS Genet 10:e1004268.

Deep Phenotyping

The precise and comprehensive analysis of phenotypic abnormalities.

  • Individual components of the phenotype are observed and described using a controlled vocabulary.
  • Deep phenotyping information is critical for:
  • Computational differential diagnostic tools.
  • Genotype-phenotype correlation.
  • Scientific examination of human disease.

PN Robinson (2012) Deep phenotyping for precision medicine. Hum Mutat 33:777–780. Special Issue of Human Mutation on Deep Phenotyping

Ontologies for Medicine and Translational Research

Core Purpose

Ontologies have two major (interrelated) use cases

  • Interoperability between databases
  • Foundation for algorithms and computational tools

Ontologies: Interoperability

  • Human genetics is becoming a data-driven science
  • Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) and other groups are defining standards to exchange and integrate information between databases across the globe
  • This is particularly difficult for clinical data!

Interoperability: What’s the problem?

  • Phenotypic descriptions that are very evocative for humans1:
    • myopathic electromyography
    • still walking 25 years after onset \end{itemize}
  • The following descriptions mean the same thing to you: generalized amyotrophy, generalized muscle atrophy, muscular atrophy, generalized, (etc)
  • Many publications have little2 information about the actual phenotypic features seen in patients with particular diseases and variants
  • Databases cannot talk to one another about phenotypes

Ontologies: Interoperability

An ontology provides a standardised “Term” for each entity in its domain that can be used for data exchange.

Field Description
ID HP:0000256
Name Macrocephaly
Definition Occipitofrontal (head) circumference greater than 97th centile compared to appropriate, age matched, sex-matched normal standards. Alternatively, an apparently increased size of the cranium.
Synonyms Large head, big head, large cranium, large calvaria, Increased head circumference, …
Xrefs MeSH:D058627, UMLS:C0221355, SNOMED CT:19410003, ICHPT:T0028, EoM:1d53660e657259f0, …
Translations

Ontologies as Computational Tools

Ontologies are used for myriad applications in biomedical research and translational applications. The greatest common denominator is: Compute over human knowledge!

Applications

  • Functional profiling in high-throughput experiments
  • Network biology
  • Model, reason and manage complex data systems (e.g., IBM Watson)
  • Natural Language Processing
  • et cetera

Haendel, Chute, Robinson (2018) Classification, Ontology, and Precision Medicine.
N Eng J Med 379:1452-1462

The Human Phenotype Ontology

Robinson Am J Hum Genet 2008
Köhler Am J Hum Genet 2009
Robinson Clin Genet. 2010
Schulz BMC Bioinformatics. 2011
Köhler Hum Mutat. 2012
Bauer Bioinformatics 2012
Köhler Nucleic Acids Res 2014
Köhler J Med Genet 2014
Zemojtel Sci Transl Med. 2014
Robinson PLoS Genet. 2014
Robinson Genome Res. 2014
Groza Am J Hum Genet 2015
Groza Database (Oxford). 2015
Smedley Nat Protoc 2015
Smedley Genome Med. 2015
Smedley Am J Hum Genet. 2016
Köhler Nucleic Acids Res 2017
Vasilevsky Nat Genet 2018
Köhler Nucleic Acids Res 2019
Köhler Curr Protoc Hum Genet. 2019
Carmody Orphanet J Rare Dis. 2020
Köhler Nucleic Acids Res 2021
Dhombres Am J Med Genet C 2022
Gargano Nucleic Acids Res 2024

HPO

Game plan

This lecture covers a review of artificial neural networks and backpropagation as a prerequisite for understanding transformers and LLMs.

Part 1: Information content

  • Information content
  • Entropy

Part 2: Semantic similarity

  • Definition of ontologies (review)
  • Ontologies and biomedical research

Part 3: Human Phenotype Ontology

  • Phenotype and phenotypic feature
  • HPO

Part 4: Phenomizer

  • Phenomizer algorithm

Phenotypic Similarity Algorithms

Goal: Calculate a similarity between a set of query terms and computational disease models.

Phenomizer
Köhler et al. (2009) Am J Hum Genet 85:457-64

Exact Score Distribution

Schulz MH et al (2011) BMC Bioinformatics 12:441

BOQA

Bauer et al. (2012) Bioinformatics 28:2502-8

  • Today, we will go into detail about two phenotype matching algoriths, Phenomizer and LIRICAL.

Ontological Diagnostics

\[\text{sim}(\color{orange}{Q} \rightarrow \color{blue}{d}) = \text{avg} \left[ \sum_{s \in \color{orange}{Q}} \max_{t \in \color{blue}{d}} \text{sim}(s,t) \right]\]

\(\color{orange}{Q}\): Query terms

\(\color{blue}{d}\): Disease terms

The Phenomizer

  • The Phenomizer: The first algorithm/software tool for supporting differential diagnostics with semantic similarity analysis
  • Sebastian Köhler et al. (2009) Clinical Diagnostics with Semantic Similarity Searches in Ontologies. Am J Hum Genet, 85:457–64.
  • Online version supported 2009-2022…no longer available.

The query

Query terms: The HPO is frequently used to create a set of terms that accurately describe the observed clinical abnormalities of an individualbeing evaluated for suspected rare genetic disease.

  • Physicians choose terms to represent the clinical anomalies seen in a patient1
  • Many tools are available. Some tools enable users to choose HPO terms by navigating the HPO hierarchy or by using autocomplete functions.

The query

  • Various text mining (named entity recognition) tools are available

Disease model(s)

Disease model: The HPO is frequently used to create a set of terms that accurately describe the observed clinical abnormalities of an individualbeing evaluated for suspected rare genetic disease.

  • ThHe HPO project has ca. 8500 disease models
  • Algorithms such as Phenomizer compare the query with each model to determine a ranked list of models that best match the query
  • Algorithms differ in how they calculate the strength of the match

Fuzzy, specificity weighted matching

Example

query:

For demo purposes, let’s create two simplified disease models

Noonan syndrome type 1 (NS1)

Neurodevelopmental disorder 1 (NDD1)

Example

Query term Noonan syndrome 1 NS1 score Neurodevelopmental disorder 1 NDD1 score
Pulmonic stenosis Pulmonic stenosis 4.19 Phenotypic abnormality 0.00*
Upslanted palpebral fissure Downslanted palpebral fissure 2.59* Phenotypic abnormality 0.00*
Proportionate short stature Short stature 1.91* Short stature 1.91*
Headache Phenotypic abnormality 0.00* Abnormality of the nervous system 0.51*
Sum 8.60 2.42
  • Information content of Upslanted palpebral fissure is 3.46, that of Downslanted palpebral fissure is 3.01. To calculate the most informative common ancestor, we go to their common parent Slanting of the palpebral fissure HP:0200006, which has an IC of 2.59
  • Short stature is the direct parent of Proportionate short stature, and so the MICA is the IC of Short stature
  • Noonan syndrome 1 receives a higher score than Neurodevelopmental disorder 1, and so NS1 would be ranked before NDD1
  • The same process is performed for all 8500 candidate diseases to generate the final ranking (prioritization)

Example

The table in the previous slide demonstrates how to calculate the phenomizer score \[ \mathrm{sim}(Q\rightarrow D) = \mathrm{avg} \sum_{s\in Q}\max_{t\in D}\mathrm{sim}(s,t) \] - \(\mathrm{sim}(s,t)\) is calculated as the IC of the maximally informative common ancestor (MICA), see Equation 3.

From raw score to p-value:

Raw similarity scores aren’t directly comparable across diseases:

  • A disease with many annotated terms has more chances for a lucky match
  • A small, specific query profile behaves differently than a large, vague one
  • To make the Phgenomizer score comparable across 8500 diseases, we want to know: How much does a score actually support a disease, given the query’s and the disease’s HPO term count and specificity?

Empirical p-value via simulation

For each candidate disease \(D\):

  1. Generate \(N\) random query profiles of the same size as the observed query (terms sampled from the HPO term/annotation universe)
  2. Compute the fuzzy similarity score between each random query and \(D\), exactly as for the real query
  3. This builds a null distribution of scores specific to \(D\)’s phenotype profile and the query size
  4. Empirical p-value:

\[ p = \frac{\#\{\text{random scores} \geq \text{observed score}\}}{N} \]

  • Diseases are then ranked by \(p\)-value rather than raw score, making rankings comparable across diseases with very different profile sizes
  • This was the basis of the original Phenomizer algorithm

Empirical p-value via simulation

  • Feature vector (FV) method, ontological similarity search (OSS), and p value (OSS-PV)

LIRICAL

  • LIRICAL is a newer phenotypic-driven prioritization algorithm that leverages the likelihood ratio test
  • We will first explain the basic concepts of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and then present LIRICAL in more detail.

Likelihood Ratio Test: Intuition

Recall Bayes’ law: \[ P(A\mid B) = \frac{P(B\mid A)\cdot P(A)}{P(B)} \tag{4}\]

  • Suppose that Suppose that A is the presence (D+) or absence (D–) of a disease
  • Suppose B represents the result of a diagnostic test (x) fulfils, say the test result being abnormal.
  • Then

\[ P(D^{+}\mid x=\mathrm{abn}) = \frac{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{+})\cdot P(D^{+})}{P(x=\mathrm{abn})} \tag{5}\]

Likelihood Ratio Test: Intuition

  • Similarly, the probability of the absence of the disease (D–) given the test result is \[ \begin{align} P(D^{-}\mid x=\mathrm{abn}) &= 1 - P(D^{+}\mid x=\mathrm{abn}) \\ &= \frac{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{-})\cdot P(D^{-})}{P(x=\mathrm{abn})} \\ \end{align} \tag{6}\]

  • Dividing Equation 5 by Equation 6 and replacing P(D–) with 1 – P(D+) gives: \[ \frac{P(D^{+}\mid x=\mathrm{abn}) }{1-P(D^{+}\mid x=\mathrm{abn}) } = \frac{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{+})}{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{-})} \times \frac{P(D^{+})}{1 - P(D^{+})} \]

  • This is \[ \text{Post-test odds of }D^{+} = \frac{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{+})}{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{-})} \times \text{Pre-test odds of }D^{+} \]

  • This is the equation used in the Bayesian approach to interpret test results.

  • The factor \(\tfrac{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{+})}{P(x=\mathrm{abn}\mid D^{-})}\) is termed the likelihood ratio (LR)

  • When the test result equals to \(r\), we write \(LR(r)\).

  • Generally speaking, the likelihood ratio indicates how many times more (or less) likely a certain condition for a test result is expected to be observed in diseased, compared with non-diseased, people

Review: odds vs. probabilities

Odds and probability both describe uncertainty, and are related by the following equation

\[ \text{odds} = \frac{P(\text{event})}{P(\text{not event})} = \frac{p}{1-p} \tag{7}\]

  • Equation 7 implies \(p = \tfrac{\text{odds}}{1+\text{odds}}\)
  • Probability
    • Ranges from 0 to 1
  • Odds
    • Ranges from 0 to \(\infty\)
Probability Odds Reads as
50% 1.00 1 : 1
90% 9.00 9 : 1
2% 0.0204 ~1 : 49
  • \(p = 2\%\) → odds \(= \dfrac{0.02}{1-0.02} \approx 0.0204\)
  • Small probabilities and their odds are nearly identical numerically; they diverge as \(p \to 1\)

LIRICAL: motivation

  • Current WES/WGS detection rate: \(\sim 40-50\%\)
  • But prevailing algorithms don’t help us realize that there are no good candidates. #1 may still be poor.
  • Some phenotypic features may support a diagnosis while others do not
  • Prevailing algorithms don’t help users interpret the relative contribution of individual HPO terms to the computational ranking

LIRICAL: Calculating the likelihood ratio

\[ \rm{LR}=\dfrac{P(x|\mathcal{D})}{P(x|\neg \mathcal{D})} \tag{8}\]

The definition of the LR can be extended to multiple tests. Suppose \(X=(x_1,x_2,\cdots,x_n)\) is an array of \(n\) test results. Under the assumption that the tests are independent, \(\rm{LR}(X)\) is defined as:

\[ \frac{{\rm{{Pr}}}(X|\mathcal{D})}{{\rm{Pr}}(X|\neg \mathcal{D})} = \frac{{\rm{Pr}}(x_1,x_2,\cdots,x_n|\mathcal{D})}{{\rm{{Pr}}}(x_1,x_2,\cdots,x_n|\neg \mathcal{D})} = \prod_{i=1}^{n} \dfrac{{\rm{{Pr}}}(x_i|\mathcal{D})}{{\rm{Pr}}(x_i|\neg \mathcal{D})} \tag{9}\]

  • With this equation, one can calculate a likelihood ratio for a set of query HPO terms
  • But how exactly do we calculate \(\dfrac{P(x|\mathcal{D})}{P(x|\neg \mathcal{D})}\)?

\(\dfrac{P(h_i|\mathcal{D})}{P(h_i|\neg \mathcal{D})}\)

  • Calculating \(P(h_i|\mathcal{D})\), the probability of an individual with disease \(D\) to have HPO term \(h_i\), is easy
  • If the HPO annotations for \(D\) include the HPO term \(h_i\), then \(P(h_i|\mathcal{D})\) is equal to the frequency of that term in the HPO annotations for the disease
OMIM:614669 Auriculocondylar syndrome 2     HP:0000347  PMID:16114046   PCS     22/31       PHPO:skoehler[2012-10-17];HPO:probinson[2023-01-30]
  • The above line is one of 285603 lines in the phenotype.hpoa file
  • It specifies the frequency of Micrognathia HP:0000347 in individuals with Auriculocondylar syndrome 2
  • It is less obvious how to specify \(P(h_i|\neg \mathcal{D})\) - the frquency of \(h_i\) in individuals without disease \(D\).
  • In principle, we could collect data on the general population, omitting individuals with \(D\), and estimate the population prevalence of \(h_i\)
  • This is both impossible and also not a good model of the diagnostic situation in medical genetics (individuals who present for diagnosis are not an unbiased selection from the general population)

\(P(h_i|\neg \mathcal{D})\)

  • LIRICAL therefore makes the assumption that every individual in the population has some Mendelian disease.

  • Then we can estimate \(P(h_i|\neg \mathcal{D})\) as follows (with a total of \(N\) Mendelian diseases) \[ P(h_i\mid D_j) = \frac{1}{N-1}\sum_{k\neq j} P(h_i\mid D_k) \approx \frac{1}{N}\sum_{k} f_{i}^{D_k} \]

  • Here, \(f_{i}^{D_k}\) is the frequency of HPO term \(i\) in individuals with disease \(k\)

  • This is the key assumption (“trick”) that allows us to apply the likelihood ratio framework to HPO-based differential diagnostic support

  • There are many details about how to calculate \(f_{i}^{D_k}\) in different situations and how to true-path rule is applied

  • The next slide gives an impression of the algorithms.1

  • LIRICAL also introduces an approach to estimate likelihood ratios for genotypes that we will not cover here.

LIRICAL: Calculating the likelihood ratio

Calculating the likelihood ratios for phenotypes

HPO annotations and frequency data: used to calculate \(\dfrac{P(x|\mathcal{D})}{P(x|\neg \mathcal{D})}\), with heuristics for non-exact matches.

  • Disease model annotated with four HPO terms (dark blue), annotated are “inherited” by ancestors (light blue)
  • Exact match to query term: \(P(h_{16}|\mathcal{D})=f_{16}^{\mathcal{D}}\)
  • Query matches descendent of annotated term: \(P(h_{14}|\mathcal{D})=\frac{f_{7}^{\mathcal{D}}}{2}=0.5\)
  • Query matches ancestor of annotated term: \(P(h_{8}|\mathcal{D})=f_{16}^{\mathcal{D}}\)

LIRICAL: Posterior probabilities improve interpretation of rankings

  • LIRICAL provides estimates of posttest probabilities

LIRICAL: Performance on 384 published case reports

LIRICAL: Detailed disease output page

Robinson PN et al., Interpretable Clinical Genomics with a Likelihood Ratio Paradigm
Am J Hum Genet 2020;107:403-417
free for academic use

Sources